Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Nancy vs Sochaux

  1. Nancy44%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Sochaux27%

1.40 expected goals for Nancy

1.00 expected goals for Sochaux

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Nancy has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Sochaux win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nancy defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sochaux defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nancy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nancy attack+25%
  3. Sochaux defence−26%

Expected goals1.40

Sochaux

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sochaux attack0%
  2. Nancy defence−27%

Expected goals1.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Nancy and 4.3 for Sochaux

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Nancy and 2.3 for Sochaux

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.5 expected

17.5 for Nancy and 8.9 for Sochaux

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

27.8 expected

13.8 for Nancy and 13.9 for Sochaux

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.