Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Grenoble vs Reims

  1. Grenoble31%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Reims42%

0.83 expected goals for Grenoble

1.78 expected goals for Reims

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Reims has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Grenoble win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Reims defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Reims attack, which scores 61% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Grenoble

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Grenoble attack−9%
  3. Reims defence−40%

Expected goals0.83

Reims

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Reims attack+61%
  2. Grenoble defence−19%

Expected goals1.78

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.1 for Grenoble and 4.5 for Reims

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Grenoble and 2.3 for Reims

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.4 expected

12.3 for Grenoble and 13.1 for Reims

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

31.6 expected

16.5 for Grenoble and 15.2 for Reims

  1. Over 20.5 fouls97%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls93%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls87%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.