Dunkerque vs Guingamp
- Dunkerque39%
- Draw28%
- Guingamp33%
1.47 expected goals for Dunkerque
1.32 expected goals for Guingamp
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Guingamp defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Dunkerque attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Dunkerque
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Dunkerque attack+25%
- Guingamp defence−22%
Expected goals1.47
Guingamp
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Guingamp attack+17%
- Dunkerque defence−17%
Expected goals1.32
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Over 3.5 goals31%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score51%
- Dunkerque or draw68%
- Draw or Guingamp61%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
4.7 for Dunkerque and 4.6 for Guingamp
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.0 for Dunkerque and 2.5 for Guingamp
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
25.3 expected
12.6 for Dunkerque and 12.7 for Guingamp
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots64%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
30.6 expected
15.3 for Dunkerque and 15.2 for Guingamp
- Over 20.5 fouls96%
- Over 22.5 fouls91%
- Over 24.5 fouls84%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.