Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93

  1. Dijon44%
  2. Draw26%
  3. RED Star FC 9330%

1.83 expected goals for Dijon

1.42 expected goals for RED Star FC 93

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Dijon has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a RED Star FC 93 win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dijon attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the RED Star FC 93 attack, which scores 27% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dijon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dijon attack+46%
  3. RED Star FC 93 defence−17%

Expected goals1.83

RED Star FC 93

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. RED Star FC 93 attack+27%
  2. Dijon defence−18%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for Dijon and 4.1 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Dijon and 2.3 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

25.4 expected

12.5 for Dijon and 12.9 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

32.7 expected

14.5 for Dijon and 18.2 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 20.5 fouls98%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls95%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls90%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.