Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Metz vs PAU

  1. Metz45%
  2. Draw26%
  3. PAU29%

1.93 expected goals for Metz

1.47 expected goals for PAU

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Metz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Metz attack+36%
  3. PAU defence−6%

Expected goals1.93

PAU

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. PAU attack+23%
  2. Metz defence−12%

Expected goals1.47

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.9 for Metz and 4.5 for PAU

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Metz and 2.3 for PAU

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.3 expected

13.4 for Metz and 13.9 for PAU

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

31.5 expected

13.9 for Metz and 17.6 for PAU

  1. Over 20.5 fouls97%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls93%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls87%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.