Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Laval vs Boulogne

  1. Laval37%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Boulogne34%

1.18 expected goals for Laval

1.17 expected goals for Boulogne

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Laval

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Laval attack+10%
  3. Boulogne defence−29%

Expected goals1.18

Boulogne

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Boulogne attack−10%
  2. Laval defence−4%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.8 for Laval and 4.2 for Boulogne

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Laval and 2.4 for Boulogne

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.2 expected

14.2 for Laval and 11.0 for Boulogne

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

32.1 expected

15.5 for Laval and 16.6 for Boulogne

  1. Over 20.5 fouls97%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls94%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls89%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.