Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Nancy1-0Laval

The model's most likely result happened: a Nancy win (45%).

Nancy vs Laval

  1. Nancy45%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Laval27%

1.72 expected goals for Nancy

1.21 expected goals for Laval

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Nancy has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Laval win at 27%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

4.5 for Nancy and 4.2 for Laval

  1. Over 8.5 corners49%
  2. Over 9.5 corners38%
  3. Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Nancy and 2.5 for Laval

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

26.8 expected

16.3 for Nancy and 10.5 for Laval

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

30.4 expected

15.4 for Nancy and 15.0 for Laval

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls91%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls83%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.