Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Montpellier2-1RED Star FC 93

The model's most likely result happened: a Montpellier win (43%).

Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93

  1. Montpellier43%
  2. Draw30%
  3. RED Star FC 9327%

1.25 expected goals for Montpellier

0.88 expected goals for RED Star FC 93

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Montpellier has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a RED Star FC 93 win at 27%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.3 for Montpellier and 4.4 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Montpellier and 2.4 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

26.2 expected

12.9 for Montpellier and 13.3 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

31.9 expected

13.7 for Montpellier and 18.2 for RED Star FC 93

  1. Over 20.5 fouls97%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls94%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls88%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.