Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Dunkerque1-1Metz

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Dunkerque win (41%).

Dunkerque vs Metz

  1. Dunkerque41%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Metz33%

1.86 expected goals for Dunkerque

1.64 expected goals for Metz

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Dunkerque has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Metz win at 33%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Dunkerque and 4.4 for Metz

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Dunkerque and 2.2 for Metz

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

26.2 expected

13.5 for Dunkerque and 12.7 for Metz

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

29.5 expected

15.6 for Dunkerque and 13.9 for Metz

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls88%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls79%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.