Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam

  1. Groningen53%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Sparta Rotterdam24%

2.27 expected goals for Groningen

1.50 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Groningen has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Sparta Rotterdam win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Groningen attack, which scores 54% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sparta Rotterdam attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Groningen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Groningen attack+54%
  3. Sparta Rotterdam defence−2%

Expected goals2.27

Sparta Rotterdam

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sparta Rotterdam attack+36%
  2. Groningen defence−19%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for Groningen and 4.7 for Sparta Rotterdam

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Groningen and 2.3 for Sparta Rotterdam

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

30.1 expected

17.0 for Groningen and 13.1 for Sparta Rotterdam

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

20.9 expected

9.8 for Groningen and 11.0 for Sparta Rotterdam

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.