Telstar vs Utrecht
- Telstar32%
- Draw26%
- Utrecht42%
1.43 expected goals for Telstar
1.62 expected goals for Utrecht
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Utrecht has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Telstar win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Utrecht attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Utrecht defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Telstar
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Telstar attack+26%
- Utrecht defence−25%
Expected goals1.43
Utrecht
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Utrecht attack+43%
- Telstar defence−17%
Expected goals1.62
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score59%
- Telstar or draw58%
- Draw or Utrecht68%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.2 for Telstar and 4.3 for Utrecht
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
3.5 expected
1.3 for Telstar and 2.2 for Utrecht
- Over 3.5 cards47%
- Over 4.5 cards28%
- Over 5.5 cards15%
Shots
29.9 expected
15.4 for Telstar and 14.5 for Utrecht
- Over 20.5 shots90%
- Over 22.5 shots83%
- Over 24.5 shots75%
Fouls
23.2 expected
10.7 for Telstar and 12.5 for Utrecht
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.