PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
- PEC Zwolle30%
- Draw26%
- ADO Den Haag44%
1.43 expected goals for PEC Zwolle
1.73 expected goals for ADO Den Haag
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
ADO Den Haag has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a PEC Zwolle win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the ADO Den Haag attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.8 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
PEC Zwolle
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- PEC Zwolle attack+8%
- ADO Den Haag defence−12%
Expected goals1.43
ADO Den Haag
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- ADO Den Haag attack+22%
- PEC Zwolle defence+4%
Expected goals1.73
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals39%
- Over 4.5 goals21%
- Both teams score60%
- PEC Zwolle or draw56%
- Draw or ADO Den Haag70%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
5.4 for PEC Zwolle and 4.4 for ADO Den Haag
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.4 for PEC Zwolle and 2.3 for ADO Den Haag
- Over 3.5 cards49%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
29.9 expected
15.8 for PEC Zwolle and 14.2 for ADO Den Haag
- Over 20.5 shots90%
- Over 22.5 shots83%
- Over 24.5 shots75%
Fouls
23.5 expected
10.5 for PEC Zwolle and 13.0 for ADO Den Haag
- Over 20.5 fouls71%
- Over 22.5 fouls56%
- Over 24.5 fouls41%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.