Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Saturday 31 October, 12:45

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

  1. PSV Eindhoven90%
  2. Draw8%
  3. Willem II2%

4.13 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven

0.79 expected goals for Willem II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes PSV Eindhoven the clear favourite: 90% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the PSV Eindhoven attack, which scores 126% more goals than an average team. Next comes the PSV Eindhoven defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

PSV Eindhoven

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. PSV Eindhoven attack+126%
  3. Willem II defence+21%

Expected goals4.13

Willem II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Willem II attack+1%
  2. PSV Eindhoven defence−43%

Expected goals0.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals96%
  3. Over 2.5 goals75%
  4. Over 3.5 goals72%
  5. Over 4.5 goals54%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.7 for PSV Eindhoven and 4.4 for Willem II

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for PSV Eindhoven and 2.2 for Willem II

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

32.5 expected

21.6 for PSV Eindhoven and 10.9 for Willem II

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.1 for PSV Eindhoven and 11.8 for Willem II

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.