Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Saturday 31 October, 10:30

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

  1. Feyenoord73%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Fortuna Sittard9%

2.86 expected goals for Feyenoord

1.07 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Feyenoord the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Feyenoord attack, which scores 134% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Feyenoord defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Feyenoord

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Feyenoord attack+134%
  3. Fortuna Sittard defence−19%

Expected goals2.86

Fortuna Sittard

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Fortuna Sittard attack+33%
  2. Feyenoord defence−41%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals55%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

6.3 for Feyenoord and 3.8 for Fortuna Sittard

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Feyenoord and 2.1 for Fortuna Sittard

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

28.0 expected

17.6 for Feyenoord and 10.4 for Fortuna Sittard

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.2 for Feyenoord and 11.3 for Fortuna Sittard

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.