Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Sunday 25 October, 14:00

Final score

AZ Alkmaar0-2Twente

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a AZ Alkmaar win (47%).

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente

  1. AZ Alkmaar47%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Twente27%

1.75 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar

1.27 expected goals for Twente

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

AZ Alkmaar has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Twente win at 27%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for AZ Alkmaar and 4.9 for Twente

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for AZ Alkmaar and 2.0 for Twente

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

26.4 expected

13.5 for AZ Alkmaar and 12.8 for Twente

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 12.2 for Twente

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.