Saturday 24 October, 09:30
Final score
Utrecht1-1PEC Zwolle
The model gave this result 21%. Its most likely result was a Utrecht win (63%).
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
- Utrecht63%
- Draw21%
- PEC Zwolle16%
2.47 expected goals for Utrecht
1.24 expected goals for PEC Zwolle
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Utrecht the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.5 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals65%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals51%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals32%It did not happen
- Both teams score62%
- Utrecht or draw84%
- Draw or PEC Zwolle37%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
5.7 for Utrecht and 4.8 for PEC Zwolle
- Over 8.5 corners66%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.9 for Utrecht and 2.0 for PEC Zwolle
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
27.4 expected
15.6 for Utrecht and 11.8 for PEC Zwolle
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
24.7 expected
12.9 for Utrecht and 11.8 for PEC Zwolle
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls64%
- Over 24.5 fouls50%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.