Saturday 31 October, 10:30
MVV vs VVV Venlo
- MVV23%
- Draw22%
- VVV Venlo55%
1.29 expected goals for MVV
2.48 expected goals for VVV Venlo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes VVV Venlo the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the MVV defence, which lets in 66% more goals than an average team. Next comes the MVV attack, which scores 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
MVV
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- MVV attack−35%
- VVV Venlo defence+32%
Expected goals1.29
VVV Venlo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- VVV Venlo attack+10%
- MVV defence+66%
Expected goals2.48
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Over 3.5 goals52%
- Over 4.5 goals33%
- Both teams score60%
- MVV or draw45%
- Draw or VVV Venlo77%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.3 for MVV and 4.7 for VVV Venlo
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.6 for MVV and 2.2 for VVV Venlo
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
26.6 expected
12.1 for MVV and 14.5 for VVV Venlo
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots70%
- Over 24.5 shots59%
Fouls
26.9 expected
13.7 for MVV and 13.2 for VVV Venlo
- Over 20.5 fouls87%
- Over 22.5 fouls78%
- Over 24.5 fouls65%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.