Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Waalwijk vs Almere City FC

  1. Waalwijk35%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Almere City FC42%

1.51 expected goals for Waalwijk

1.72 expected goals for Almere City FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Waalwijk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Waalwijk attack+5%
  3. Almere City FC defence−5%

Expected goals1.51

Almere City FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Almere City FC attack+13%
  2. Waalwijk defence+12%

Expected goals1.72

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.3 for Waalwijk and 4.3 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.6 for Waalwijk and 2.0 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

28.4 expected

14.8 for Waalwijk and 13.6 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.8 for Waalwijk and 12.6 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.