Friday 30 October, 14:00
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
- FC Volendam61%
- Draw20%
- De Graafschap19%
2.45 expected goals for FC Volendam
1.17 expected goals for De Graafschap
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
FC Volendam
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- FC Volendam attack+21%
- De Graafschap defence+35%
Expected goals2.45
De Graafschap
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- De Graafschap attack−19%
- FC Volendam defence+6%
Expected goals1.17
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Over 3.5 goals49%
- Over 4.5 goals30%
- Both teams score59%
- FC Volendam or draw81%
- Draw or De Graafschap39%
- No draw80%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.3 expected
5.5 for FC Volendam and 5.8 for De Graafschap
- Over 8.5 corners73%
- Over 9.5 corners64%
- Over 10.5 corners54%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.7 for FC Volendam and 2.2 for De Graafschap
- Over 3.5 cards54%
- Over 4.5 cards34%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
32.1 expected
16.5 for FC Volendam and 15.6 for De Graafschap
- Over 20.5 shots93%
- Over 22.5 shots89%
- Over 24.5 shots82%
Fouls
23.4 expected
12.3 for FC Volendam and 11.1 for De Graafschap
- Over 20.5 fouls70%
- Over 22.5 fouls55%
- Over 24.5 fouls40%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.