Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

FC OSS3-3Jong Ajax

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a FC OSS win (54%).

FC OSS vs Jong Ajax

  1. FC OSS54%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Jong Ajax24%

2.03 expected goals for FC OSS

1.17 expected goals for Jong Ajax

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC OSS has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Jong Ajax win at 24%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.5 for FC OSS and 5.2 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for FC OSS and 2.1 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.8 expected

15.1 for FC OSS and 13.8 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

27.2 expected

13.5 for FC OSS and 13.7 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.