Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport

Jong AZ55%
Draw21%
Helmond Sport24%

2.34 expected goals for Jong AZ

1.37 expected goals for Helmond Sport

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Jong AZ the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
Over 2.5 goals62%It happened
Over 3.5 goals51%It happened
Over 4.5 goals31%It happened

Both teams score60%
Jong AZ or draw76%
Draw or Helmond Sport45%
No draw79%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.8 for Jong AZ and 4.2 for Helmond Sport

Over 8.5 corners62%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Jong AZ and 2.2 for Helmond Sport

Over 3.5 cards57%
Over 4.5 cards38%
Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

30.2 expected

17.4 for Jong AZ and 12.8 for Helmond Sport

Over 20.5 shots90%
Over 22.5 shots84%
Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.0 for Jong AZ and 12.9 for Helmond Sport

Over 20.5 fouls73%
Over 22.5 fouls58%
Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.