Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF

  1. AB Copenhagen53%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Vendsyssel FF25%

2.00 expected goals for AB Copenhagen

1.19 expected goals for Vendsyssel FF

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

AB Copenhagen has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Vendsyssel FF win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AB Copenhagen attack, which scores 78% more goals than an average team. Next comes the AB Copenhagen defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

AB Copenhagen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. AB Copenhagen attack+78%
  3. Vendsyssel FF defence−26%

Expected goals2.00

Vendsyssel FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vendsyssel FF attack+40%
  2. AB Copenhagen defence−37%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.