Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Esbjerg vs Hvidovre

  1. Esbjerg36%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Hvidovre39%

1.47 expected goals for Esbjerg

1.54 expected goals for Hvidovre

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hvidovre defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Esbjerg attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Esbjerg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Esbjerg attack+71%
  3. Hvidovre defence−43%

Expected goals1.47

Hvidovre

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hvidovre attack+58%
  2. Esbjerg defence−28%

Expected goals1.54

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.