Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød

  1. Aarhus Fremad36%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Hillerød32%

1.14 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad

1.04 expected goals for Hillerød

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Aarhus Fremad defence, which lets in 53% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Hillerød attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Aarhus Fremad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Aarhus Fremad attack+17%
  3. Hillerød defence−36%

Expected goals1.14

Hillerød

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hillerød attack+63%
  2. Aarhus Fremad defence−53%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.