Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Aalborg vs Hobro

  1. Aalborg44%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Hobro31%

1.63 expected goals for Aalborg

1.26 expected goals for Hobro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Aalborg has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Hobro win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Aalborg attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Aalborg defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Aalborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Aalborg attack+34%
  3. Hobro defence−19%

Expected goals1.63

Hobro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hobro attack+23%
  2. Aalborg defence−25%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.