Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Club America vs Toluca

  1. Club America44%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Toluca31%

1.80 expected goals for Club America

1.64 expected goals for Toluca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Club America has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Toluca win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club America attack, which scores 58% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Toluca attack, which scores 47% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 11.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Club America

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Club America attack+58%
  3. Toluca defence−25%

Expected goals1.80

Toluca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Toluca attack+47%
  2. Club America defence−18%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

5.1 for Club America and 5.9 for Toluca

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Club America and 2.3 for Toluca

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

33.2 expected

17.6 for Club America and 15.7 for Toluca

  1. Over 20.5 shots95%
  2. Over 22.5 shots91%
  3. Over 24.5 shots85%

Fouls

25.1 expected

12.5 for Club America and 12.7 for Toluca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.