Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
- Monterrey47%
- Draw26%
- Club Tijuana27%
1.62 expected goals for Monterrey
1.29 expected goals for Club Tijuana
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Monterrey has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Club Tijuana win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Monterrey attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 11.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Monterrey
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Monterrey attack+21%
- Club Tijuana defence−11%
Expected goals1.62
Club Tijuana
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Club Tijuana attack+7%
- Monterrey defence−11%
Expected goals1.29
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals33%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score57%
- Monterrey or draw73%
- Draw or Club Tijuana53%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.3 expected
6.9 for Monterrey and 4.4 for Club Tijuana
- Over 8.5 corners73%
- Over 9.5 corners63%
- Over 10.5 corners54%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.7 for Monterrey and 2.3 for Club Tijuana
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
28.7 expected
17.6 for Monterrey and 11.2 for Club Tijuana
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
22.2 expected
11.7 for Monterrey and 10.5 for Club Tijuana
- Over 20.5 fouls61%
- Over 22.5 fouls46%
- Over 24.5 fouls31%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.