Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL

  1. CF Pachuca41%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Tigres UANL28%

1.13 expected goals for CF Pachuca

0.98 expected goals for Tigres UANL

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

CF Pachuca has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Tigres UANL win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tigres UANL defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the CF Pachuca defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

CF Pachuca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. CF Pachuca attack+6%
  3. Tigres UANL defence−29%

Expected goals1.13

Tigres UANL

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tigres UANL attack−5%
  2. CF Pachuca defence−24%

Expected goals0.98

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.4 for CF Pachuca and 5.1 for Tigres UANL

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.2 for CF Pachuca and 2.1 for Tigres UANL

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.9 expected

17.1 for CF Pachuca and 11.8 for Tigres UANL

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

25.6 expected

14.7 for CF Pachuca and 10.8 for Tigres UANL

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.