Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Friday 30 October, 20:00

Atletico San Luis vs Atlas

  1. Atletico San Luis46%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Atlas29%

1.80 expected goals for Atletico San Luis

1.51 expected goals for Atlas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico San Luis

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico San Luis attack+9%
  3. Atlas defence+9%

Expected goals1.80

Atlas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atlas attack+8%
  2. Atletico San Luis defence+3%

Expected goals1.52

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

5.3 for Atletico San Luis and 5.8 for Atlas

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Atletico San Luis and 2.1 for Atlas

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

28.3 expected

13.8 for Atletico San Luis and 14.5 for Atlas

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

22.6 expected

11.5 for Atletico San Luis and 11.1 for Atlas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.