Atlas vs Puebla

Atlas52%
Draw26%
Puebla22%

1.66 expected goals for Atlas

1.05 expected goals for Puebla

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Atlas has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Puebla win at 22%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
Over 3.5 goals29%It happened
Over 4.5 goals14%It happened

Both teams score55%
Atlas or draw78%
Draw or Puebla48%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.8 expected

7.2 for Atlas and 4.7 for Puebla

Over 8.5 corners76%
Over 9.5 corners68%
Over 10.5 corners59%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Atlas and 2.1 for Puebla

Over 3.5 cards46%
Over 4.5 cards28%
Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.2 for Atlas and 10.7 for Puebla

Over 20.5 shots81%
Over 22.5 shots72%
Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.6 for Atlas and 11.1 for Puebla

Over 20.5 fouls58%
Over 22.5 fouls42%
Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.