Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Friday 23 October, 20:00

Final score

Necaxa1-1FC Juarez

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Necaxa win (50%).

Necaxa vs FC Juarez

  1. Necaxa50%
  2. Draw24%
  3. FC Juarez26%

1.92 expected goals for Necaxa

1.46 expected goals for FC Juarez

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Necaxa has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a FC Juarez win at 26%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.8 for Necaxa and 4.5 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Necaxa and 2.6 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

26.7 expected

15.3 for Necaxa and 11.4 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

25.3 expected

12.6 for Necaxa and 12.7 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.