Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Wednesday 21 October, 20:00

Final score

Toluca2-2Club Tijuana

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Toluca win (61%).

Toluca vs Club Tijuana

  1. Toluca61%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Club Tijuana17%

2.06 expected goals for Toluca

0.93 expected goals for Club Tijuana

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Toluca the clear favourite: 61% to win. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.4 expected

6.1 for Toluca and 5.2 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners64%
  3. Over 10.5 corners55%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Toluca and 2.2 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

29.9 expected

17.6 for Toluca and 12.3 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

25.2 expected

13.6 for Toluca and 11.6 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.