Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Venezia vs Udinese

  1. Venezia36%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Udinese35%

1.36 expected goals for Venezia

1.31 expected goals for Udinese

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Udinese defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Venezia defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Venezia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Venezia attack+20%
  3. Udinese defence−25%

Expected goals1.36

Udinese

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Udinese attack+27%
  2. Venezia defence−24%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for Venezia and 4.9 for Udinese

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Venezia and 2.1 for Udinese

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

29.3 expected

14.2 for Venezia and 15.1 for Udinese

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

21.1 expected

10.1 for Venezia and 11.0 for Udinese

  1. Over 20.5 fouls53%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls37%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls24%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.