Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Lecce vs Genoa

  1. Lecce22%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Genoa47%

0.84 expected goals for Lecce

1.27 expected goals for Genoa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Genoa has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Lecce win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Genoa defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lecce defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lecce

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lecce attack−7%
  3. Genoa defence−40%

Expected goals0.84

Genoa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Genoa attack+21%
  2. Lecce defence−23%

Expected goals1.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.4 for Lecce and 3.9 for Genoa

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Lecce and 2.3 for Genoa

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

24.4 expected

12.9 for Lecce and 11.5 for Genoa

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.1 for Lecce and 10.9 for Genoa

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.