Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Lazio vs Cagliari

  1. Lazio59%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Cagliari16%

1.81 expected goals for Lazio

0.82 expected goals for Cagliari

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Lazio the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lazio defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lazio attack, which scores 76% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lazio

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lazio attack+76%
  3. Cagliari defence−32%

Expected goals1.81

Cagliari

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cagliari attack+16%
  2. Lazio defence−48%

Expected goals0.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.0 for Lazio and 4.0 for Cagliari

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Lazio and 2.3 for Cagliari

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.1 expected

18.1 for Lazio and 8.9 for Cagliari

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

21.6 expected

9.8 for Lazio and 11.9 for Cagliari

  1. Over 20.5 fouls57%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls41%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.