Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Juventus vs Napoli

  1. Juventus35%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Napoli37%

1.41 expected goals for Juventus

1.42 expected goals for Napoli

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Napoli attack, which scores 99% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Napoli defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Juventus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Juventus attack+79%
  3. Napoli defence−48%

Expected goals1.40

Napoli

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Napoli attack+99%
  2. Juventus defence−48%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Juventus and 4.2 for Napoli

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.3 for Juventus and 2.2 for Napoli

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

28.8 expected

16.8 for Juventus and 12.0 for Napoli

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

20.5 expected

10.6 for Juventus and 10.0 for Napoli

  1. Over 20.5 fouls48%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls33%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls20%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.