Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Bologna vs Monza

  1. Bologna58%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Monza19%

2.19 expected goals for Bologna

1.19 expected goals for Monza

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bologna the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bologna defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bologna attack, which scores 58% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bologna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bologna attack+58%
  3. Monza defence−8%

Expected goals2.19

Monza

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Monza attack+43%
  2. Bologna defence−39%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

4.8 for Bologna and 4.8 for Monza

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Bologna and 2.2 for Monza

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.4 expected

13.5 for Bologna and 11.9 for Monza

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.1 for Bologna and 12.8 for Monza

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.