Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Sunday 25 October, 12:30

Final score

Atalanta4-4Frosinone

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Atalanta win (44%).

Atalanta vs Frosinone

  1. Atalanta44%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Frosinone29%

1.64 expected goals for Atalanta

1.28 expected goals for Frosinone

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Atalanta has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Frosinone win at 29%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Atalanta and 4.3 for Frosinone

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for Atalanta and 2.0 for Frosinone

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

30.7 expected

17.6 for Atalanta and 13.1 for Frosinone

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.1 for Atalanta and 11.3 for Frosinone

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.