Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima

  1. Deportivo Pereira30%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Deportes Tolima38%

0.78 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira

1.29 expected goals for Deportes Tolima

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportes Tolima defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Pereira attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo Pereira

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo Pereira attack−22%
  3. Deportes Tolima defence−33%

Expected goals0.78

Deportes Tolima

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportes Tolima attack+5%
  2. Deportivo Pereira defence−9%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.5 for Deportivo Pereira and 4.8 for Deportes Tolima

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

5.7 expected

2.9 for Deportivo Pereira and 2.8 for Deportes Tolima

  1. Over 3.5 cards82%
  2. Over 4.5 cards67%
  3. Over 5.5 cards50%

Shots

22.1 expected

10.0 for Deportivo Pereira and 12.1 for Deportes Tolima

  1. Over 20.5 shots58%
  2. Over 22.5 shots45%
  3. Over 24.5 shots33%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.1 for Deportivo Pereira and 12.3 for Deportes Tolima

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.