Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
- Deportivo Pasto43%
- Draw30%
- Jaguares27%
1.40 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto
1.24 expected goals for Jaguares
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Deportivo Pasto has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Jaguares win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Pasto defence, which lets in 11% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 8.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Deportivo Pasto
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Deportivo Pasto attack−10%
- Jaguares defence+3%
Expected goals1.40
Jaguares
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Jaguares attack+3%
- Deportivo Pasto defence−11%
Expected goals1.24
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Over 3.5 goals27%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score49%
- Deportivo Pasto or draw73%
- Draw or Jaguares56%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.7 expected
5.3 for Deportivo Pasto and 3.4 for Jaguares
- Over 8.5 corners49%
- Over 9.5 corners38%
- Over 10.5 corners29%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.0 for Deportivo Pasto and 2.6 for Jaguares
- Over 3.5 cards68%
- Over 4.5 cards49%
- Over 5.5 cards32%
Shots
26.4 expected
17.0 for Deportivo Pasto and 9.3 for Jaguares
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots57%
Fouls
23.2 expected
11.0 for Deportivo Pasto and 12.2 for Jaguares
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.