Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Jaguares1-0Llaneros

The model's most likely result happened: a Jaguares win (38%).

Jaguares vs Llaneros

  1. Jaguares38%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Llaneros32%

1.21 expected goals for Jaguares

1.38 expected goals for Llaneros

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.1 for Jaguares and 4.8 for Llaneros

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

5.2 expected

2.2 for Jaguares and 3.0 for Llaneros

  1. Over 3.5 cards76%
  2. Over 4.5 cards59%
  3. Over 5.5 cards42%

Shots

27.2 expected

13.4 for Jaguares and 13.9 for Llaneros

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

23.7 expected

11.9 for Jaguares and 11.7 for Llaneros

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.