Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Chico1-0Bucaramanga

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Bucaramanga win (46%).

Chico vs Bucaramanga

  1. Chico26%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Bucaramanga46%

0.77 expected goals for Chico

1.78 expected goals for Bucaramanga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Bucaramanga has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Chico win at 26%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.9 for Chico and 3.7 for Bucaramanga

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Chico and 2.4 for Bucaramanga

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.9 expected

14.1 for Chico and 11.8 for Bucaramanga

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

23.1 expected

12.0 for Chico and 11.2 for Bucaramanga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.