Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional59%
Draw26%
Independiente Medellin15%

1.95 expected goals for Atletico Nacional

1.00 expected goals for Independiente Medellin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Atletico Nacional the clear favourite: 59% to win. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
Over 3.5 goals34%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Both teams score49%
Atletico Nacional or draw85%
Draw or Independiente Medellin40%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.2 for Atletico Nacional and 4.3 for Independiente Medellin

Over 8.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners46%
Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Atletico Nacional and 2.6 for Independiente Medellin

Over 3.5 cards68%
Over 4.5 cards49%
Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

27.1 expected

17.5 for Atletico Nacional and 9.6 for Independiente Medellin

Over 20.5 shots81%
Over 22.5 shots72%
Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.5 for Atletico Nacional and 12.1 for Independiente Medellin

Over 20.5 fouls77%
Over 22.5 fouls63%
Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.