Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca

  1. Sporting Cristal74%
  2. Draw13%
  3. FC Cajamarca13%

2.92 expected goals for Sporting Cristal

1.42 expected goals for FC Cajamarca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Sporting Cristal the clear favourite: 74% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Cajamarca defence, which lets in 39% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sporting Cristal attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 72% chance, and both teams scoring, 65%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sporting Cristal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sporting Cristal attack+39%
  3. FC Cajamarca defence+39%

Expected goals2.92

FC Cajamarca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Cajamarca attack+12%
  2. Sporting Cristal defence−7%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals72%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for Sporting Cristal and 4.2 for FC Cajamarca

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Sporting Cristal and 2.2 for FC Cajamarca

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

28.4 expected

15.6 for Sporting Cristal and 12.8 for FC Cajamarca

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

25.6 expected

13.3 for Sporting Cristal and 12.4 for FC Cajamarca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.