Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar

  1. Sport Huancayo32%
  2. Draw22%
  3. FBC Melgar46%

1.35 expected goals for Sport Huancayo

1.94 expected goals for FBC Melgar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FBC Melgar has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Sport Huancayo win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FBC Melgar attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FBC Melgar defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sport Huancayo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sport Huancayo attack+26%
  3. FBC Melgar defence−29%

Expected goals1.35

FBC Melgar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FBC Melgar attack+43%
  2. Sport Huancayo defence0%

Expected goals1.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Sport Huancayo and 4.2 for FBC Melgar

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Sport Huancayo and 2.3 for FBC Melgar

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

31.2 expected

19.0 for Sport Huancayo and 12.1 for FBC Melgar

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.5 for Sport Huancayo and 10.9 for FBC Melgar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.