Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. UCV Moquegua40%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Club Deportivo Los Chankas32%

1.32 expected goals for UCV Moquegua

1.28 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

UCV Moquegua has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Club Deportivo Los Chankas win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the UCV Moquegua attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence, which lets in 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

UCV Moquegua

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. UCV Moquegua attack−27%
  3. Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence+20%

Expected goals1.32

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack+4%
  2. UCV Moquegua defence−9%

Expected goals1.28

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.1 for UCV Moquegua and 4.3 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for UCV Moquegua and 2.3 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.0 expected

14.3 for UCV Moquegua and 13.8 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

24.2 expected

13.0 for UCV Moquegua and 11.2 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.