Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Atletico Grau vs Universitario

  1. Atletico Grau25%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Universitario51%

0.92 expected goals for Atletico Grau

1.79 expected goals for Universitario

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Universitario has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Atletico Grau win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Universitario defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Universitario attack, which scores 42% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Grau

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Grau attack−6%
  3. Universitario defence−35%

Expected goals0.92

Universitario

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Universitario attack+42%
  2. Atletico Grau defence−7%

Expected goals1.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for Atletico Grau and 4.9 for Universitario

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.2 for Atletico Grau and 2.6 for Universitario

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

27.9 expected

13.2 for Atletico Grau and 14.6 for Universitario

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.5 for Atletico Grau and 11.4 for Universitario

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.