Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Cusco vs Sport Boys

  1. Cusco44%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Sport Boys30%

1.45 expected goals for Cusco

1.29 expected goals for Sport Boys

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cusco has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sport Boys win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sport Boys defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cusco attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cusco

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cusco attack+28%
  3. Sport Boys defence−25%

Expected goals1.45

Sport Boys

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sport Boys attack+9%
  2. Cusco defence−13%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.3 for Cusco and 4.3 for Sport Boys

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Cusco and 2.5 for Sport Boys

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

28.9 expected

14.8 for Cusco and 14.0 for Sport Boys

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

24.4 expected

12.4 for Cusco and 12.1 for Sport Boys

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.