Saturday 31 October, 16:00
Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
- Comerciantes Unidos38%
- Draw27%
- ADT35%
1.29 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos
1.42 expected goals for ADT
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the ADT defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Comerciantes Unidos
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Comerciantes Unidos attack+3%
- ADT defence−16%
Expected goals1.30
ADT
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- ADT attack+6%
- Comerciantes Unidos defence−2%
Expected goals1.42
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score55%
- Comerciantes Unidos or draw65%
- Draw or ADT62%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
5.0 for Comerciantes Unidos and 4.4 for ADT
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.5 for Comerciantes Unidos and 2.7 for ADT
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
27.8 expected
13.6 for Comerciantes Unidos and 14.1 for ADT
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots65%
Fouls
23.6 expected
10.7 for Comerciantes Unidos and 12.9 for ADT
- Over 20.5 fouls71%
- Over 22.5 fouls56%
- Over 24.5 fouls42%
Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.