Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. UTC Cajamarca25%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso55%

1.10 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca

2.17 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Garcilaso defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Garcilaso attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

UTC Cajamarca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. UTC Cajamarca attack+2%
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso defence−29%

Expected goals1.10

Deportivo Garcilaso

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Garcilaso attack+39%
  2. UTC Cajamarca defence+15%

Expected goals2.18

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.6 for UTC Cajamarca and 4.7 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.2 for UTC Cajamarca and 2.4 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

32.0 expected

13.5 for UTC Cajamarca and 18.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

25.5 expected

13.2 for UTC Cajamarca and 12.3 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.